Paramount Gang Gang
Plus: Are ports a buy now?
POT / NPH — Starting to like the ports at these levels. It’s not that exciting, I know (they’re ports!) but look, you can buy Port of Tauranga for $4.80, which is over a five year low. Worse places to put your money.
RAK — Another space contract — supplying subsystems for a new commercial low orbit constellation. Think this only underlines the value of RAK’s tech, and likely revenue streams going forward… we did some work on understanding their AI chips (Niku and Mercury X) — head hurt after but bottom line is — their stuff really is good — and if you consider the demand for data centres then the future looks bright there too … (look at the recent cap raise for Infratil’s CDC… and they barely even had to ask for the money!)
Had a chuckle at the recent resignation of Sinead Horgan from the board —
Sinead’s significant experience in finance, strategy development, risk management and M&A has added valuable knowledge and insights to Rakon
I will leave it to you to read as you will…emphasis is mine.
EROAD — Awarded a new contract — the exciting headline reads “EROAD signs material customer contract”. Hilariously followed by “EROAD is unable to announce the name of the customer as per the terms of the agreement,” — I mean, what is secret squirrel about this? And why? It’s hardly the Coca-Cola recipe. I get frustrated that NZ companies are so secretive about what should be fairly standard data.
Are we at the top yet? Noting online comics platform, Webtoon Entertainment, is listing on the NASDAQ at a $2.7bn (USD) valuation. Almost spat my coffee … but then looked at the numbers — $1.2bn in revenue in 2023 and the stats for user generated comics that generate money for the creators are quite impressive — see below.
Comics are a big business!
Paramount — You might think that the never-ending saga of Shari and the company her late pa founded was over, but you’d be wrong — there’s still Apollo/Sony (Khan and her anti-trust bulldogs1 would be all over that transaction like a rash), then there’s Bain Capital and Edgar Bronfman Jr, who could be interested in paying up to $2.5bn for National Amusements (Shari’s holding company which effectively controls Paramount via the dual class stock structure), and then there’s Steven Paul who has offered up to $3bn for National Amusements, allegedly. Paul is friends with Shari, so it could go that way — remember, this deal is about ego (Shari’s) first, and the numbers second. But as I have written before, Shari needs to do a deal quickly — the value of Paramount, quite literally, is melting away like an iceberg succumbing to particularly bad global warming. All the media companies are struggling right now — Zaz’s WarnerBrothersDiscovery briefly dipped below $7… that’s a +70% drop since listing (?!)
Remember that WBD is basically a leveraged buyout with a lot of debt and an equity “stub”. It makes a lot of money but most of that goes into paying off the debt. Zaz has done as John Malone has told him — and paid off the debt, to hell with everything else. But it still won’t re-rate until the debt is reduced significantly more — billions of dollars more. It’s a hard hill to climb.
Keeping up with the Arnaults — Of course Bernie Arnault, the world’s first or second or third richest man, depending on the day, claims that his recent personal purchase of Richemont is nothing more than a simple purchase. As the Tui Billboards say — Yeah, right. Arnault is deliberate — that recent BusinessWeek piece with his visage on the cover was deliberate positioning (it is I, Arnault, and I own the Olympics, etc). And so is the purchase of Richemont. Richemont owns Cartier. Cartier brings in upwards of $10bn per year — that would be a meaningful purchase for the LVMH juggernaut. I doubt Arnault would be interested in the fashion brands (maybe Chloe) — the real prize is Cartier, Van Cleef, and the watch brands. Could a transaction eventuate? I think it’s possible — Richemont is really just controlled by one man — Johann Rupert — there’s not a tight clan like at Hermes or Puig. Arnault paid about $16bn for Tiffany and co — I imagine he’d pony up a far steeper price for a jewel that involves Cartier.
Lynas — told investors on Thursday that it was targeting first production of two heavy rare earths – dysprosium and terbium – from its Malaysian processing plant next year — breaking China’s monopoly on the production of those particular rare earths. Lithium and things related to lithium has sold off recently — good time to buy more Lynas or a good entry point…
Duratec — Back at $1.21. Remember when it was at $1.00? I had a few doubting Thomas’ then. Up 11% on the month. Still like it.
JPY — An interesting way to take advantage of the yen being at its weakest level since 1986 might be to buy a contract on the yen for say, September 2024 (I am not suggesting this! It’s just an interesting idea — do this at your own risk). It all depends if you think the yen is going to fall below even 1986 levels or not — you know, when Crowded House released Don’t Dream It’s Over. It’s a long time ago. BOJ has plenty of firepower to intervene. 160 is a level the BOJ doesn’t like.
I am the head of Macro — I mean, this is just funny —
On January 10, 2024, Fishback emailed Greenlight and threatened to attend Greenlight’s 2024 Annual Partner Dinner.
Many of Greenlight’s investors, counterparties, service providers and employee family members attend Greenlight’s Annual Partner Dinners. Fishback’s threats were obvious attempts to intimidate and embarrass Greenlight, and interfere with Greenlight’s relationships with its investors, counterparties and service providers. When Greenlight notified Fishback that he was not permitted to attend, he insisted that he would still attempt to do so, or at a minimum, stand outside the event venue and attempt to communicate with attendees.
(?!) OK then.
Things I’ve been reading:
Inside the final 72 Hours of Archegos
Jefferies calls CEO Rich Handler, who is on holiday in Turks and Caicos with a spicy margarita on the way. They tell him Archegos isn’t answering their calls. Handler says he’s going to get his cocktail and he wants Archegos positions gone and a tally of losses by the time he comes back. It was one of the few banks that escaped with minimal losses.
If you read anything, read this — it’s wild. Bill Hwang blew up $36bn in a matter of hours!
Who is the real Rebecca Minkoff?
Accused of hypocrisy and workplace hostility, the fashion designer—and devout Scientologist—has gone from #Girlboss to horrible boss to Real Housewife
Meet the most expensive lawyer in Australia
Tax specialist Mark Robertson, KC, could be the most expensive lawyer in the country, charging clients $6250 an hour and $50,000 for an eight-hour day.
kittens — Khan talks a big game but mostly, her litigation at the FTC mostly serves as a device to make M&A lawyers richer.